The current price of methanol fell significantly in October. Methanol this wheel falls within expected range. At the industry level, the operating rate of coal methanol units recovered after the inland price was raised, and the import quotation continued to be lower than the disk surface; On the macro level, the economy has not yet seen signs of stabilization, and market expectations have not yet improved. But just as we think that the position of 2,400 yuan/ton can not be similar to the optimistic logic, the current disk surface should not be pessimistic around 2100 yuan/ton. Disk surface continues to callback, methanol import profits rapidly shrink, later imports of plate surface of the suppression force weakened; Meanwhile, gas demand in the northern hemisphere will rise rapidly in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, raising the price of natural gas at a visible rate, as is currently seen, and the price center for natural gas production of methanol is expected to move upwards. The current fundamentals of the multiple factors gradually emerged, methanol unilateral decline trend or come to an end.
Rapid decline in import profits
At the beginning of the month, methanol import profits once soared above 200 yuan per ton. Under the stimulus of high profits, methanol imports climbed. While importing methanol to meet the needs of coastal ports, it once reversed the original trade flow from inland to coastal areas and supplied the southeastern part of the country. Since then, the price of coastal ports has dropped rapidly, and import profits have been compressed to the previous year's level near 0 yuan. After the import profit yearns for the same period of the year, the amount of imported methanol will be significantly reduced, the impact on the domestic methanol supply and demand pattern will be significantly reduced, and the downward pressure on the price caused by the excessive supply of coastal methanol will be significantly reduced.
Supply faces seasonal contraction
As the heating season approaches, natural gas prices continue to rise. With the improvement of economic development, people's livelihood and environmental protection awareness, domestic natural gas demand has maintained a double-digit increase in recent years. Under the influence of the expected increase in winter heating demand in the northern region, domestic natural gas prices rose rapidly after a new low in mid-September, with a cumulative increase of about 30 % in more than a month; Driven by this, international gas prices stabilized and recovered in early October. On the 28th, the US natural gas index rose by nearly 5 %, following domestic trends. Domestic natural gas prices climbed too fast, or caused Boyuan and other 1 million tons of natural gas methanol production plant operating rate later appeared to fall further. Previously, in the case of rising prices in inland areas, the rate of construction in inland areas quickly recovered to the same period in previous years, and there was limited room for late production release. The natural gas price rises and the seasonal arrangement of keeping people warm and supplying gas in winter will lead to the situation of methanol supply and demand in inland areas will be further tightened. The rise in international gas prices will raise foreign production costs, reduce the profits of natural gas methanol units, and increase the cost of foreign imports to East China ports. Later imports are expected to be further lower.
Port inventory inflection point appears
As of October 24, the inventory of East China's ports was 847,800 tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons from the previous week, and a decrease of 113,200 tons from the annual high of 961,000 tons on September 19. The inventory of South China Port was 127,200 tons, and the evolution trend was similar to that of East China. It was 31,100 tons lower than September 18. Inventory is a comprehensive reflection of supply and demand. Before that, the main reason for the decline in methanol prices was the supply pressure brought about by the high inventory in the port. After the continuous decline in inventory, the pressure on the price of high inventory will gradually ease, and the weak price pattern of the port will gradually change.; The rapid decline of the port bank during a certain period may even become a tipping point for a new round of market prices.
Errors in popular market views on positions
In the changing market, traders can form their own trading system based on technical analysis, and success is reasonable. But some analysts have gone with the flow, losing their judgment on the logic of the market. When the market goes up, it does not analyze the signs of multi-empty changes. When the market falls, it does not analyze the fluctuation of the relationship between supply and demand. The judgment of the direction of the rise and fall of the market is entirely based on the analysis of the top 20 positions, and even produces superstitious positions for certain companies.. Some analysts are keen to analyze the positions of several companies with relatively heavy positions, without fundamental logic to support or analyze the logic of the position, which is equivalent to giving the analysts the ability to think independently.
Futures positions have never been the basis for a simple multi-short judgment. Each short position has a long position corresponding to it, and vice versa. In the current combination, cross-term, cross-breed arbitrage and other risk management trading means increasingly abundant today, only one or several futures company position to infer its operating intentions is no more than a sword. To put it a step further, assuming that the position is the intention, it can not rule out the sudden change or even shift in the position of the company that focuses on the position in response to changes in fundamentals. Therefore, the market judgment logic based on the position analysis is based on quicksand and is not worth refuting at all.
To sum up, under the influence of many factors such as the decline of import profits, seasonal contraction of supply, and the continuous decline of the price of methanol in the port, the probability of methanol's stabilization and rebound in the near future is gradually increasing. It is recommended that the downstream demand enterprise choose to buy spot or establish a buying hedging position that is suitable to the demand.
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